Armenia in 2018, Belarus in 2020
It is difficult to avoid drawing parallels between the political developments that took place in Armenia in 2018 and the ongoing events in Belarus. There are significant overlaps, but also substantial differences.
One major difference is in the leadership. Nikol Pashinyan had a long track record as a journalist, opposition activist, and politican, a visible part of street protests that had characterised politics in Armenia since the mid-2000s. He and his team had quite clear methods and tactics in 2018, drawn from years of experience.
I do not know enough about Belarus, but, from as much as I can follow, it seems that the movement is more sporadic, led by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who was unexpectedly thrust onto the scene because of political machinations targeting her husband. It is a different dynamic, even though – quite clearly – both in Armenia in 2018 and in Belarus in 2020, a large proportion of the population expresses the same demand of changing entrenched political leadership.