Author: Nareg Seferian

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A “Frozen Conflict” Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and Future Implications

A “Frozen Conflict” Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and Future Implications

Walter Landgraf, Nareg Seferian

This report has two objectives: first, to present an account of the conflict with an emphasis on analytically useful categories and context up to the present, and second, to discuss local, regional, and global consequences of the latest developments of the dispute, including policy implications and recommendations.

An Account of the Conflict

  • Azerbaijan’s lightning attack on Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 ended three decades of de facto independence for the breakaway region. Previously, the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh Republic had shown remarkable durability, enabled by support from Armenia and Russia, the latter more after the Second Karabakh War of 2020. However, changed regional and global power dynamics since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 encouraged an opportunistic Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, to deliver the death knell to Nagorno-Karabakh.
  • Prior to Azerbaijan’s latest assault, two wars had been fought over Nagorno-Karabakh. The first began as a limited conflict, which turned into a larger-scale war when the USSR dissolved. Its ceasefire in 1994 resulted in the establishment of the de facto independent Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. The second war, in 2020, resulted in Azerbaijan reversing the gains of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and further isolating the territory. Russia mediated the ceasefire and thereafter stationed peacekeepers in the region.
  • Many issues are still unresolved in this long-running conflict. The biggest concern is directing much-needed humanitarian aid to those displaced by the latest violence. There also remains potential for future Azerbaijani incursions into Armenia to secure a path to its exclave of Nakhchivan.

Consequences of the Dispute’s Latest Developments and Implications

  • Nagorno-Karabakh has important implications for other international conflicts grappling with the competing principles of territorial integrity and national self-determination. The principle of nonuse of force is also affected by the fall-out of this dispute, risking the normalization of international violence with impunity.
  • The US has limited foreign policy options to affect the current situation on the ground. One approach is to expand the American diplomatic footprint in the region to reinforce its influence. More consequentially, it should work with the European Union and regional players to implement an enduring monitoring mechanism to prevent renewed escalation. This effort should focus on reducing human suffering while improving the quality of life of people displaced by violence, and be pursued with a presence on the ground in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh to facilitate the potential return of refugees to their homes.

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Glimpses into the ARF Photo Archives: What is an Archive, Anyway?

Glimpses into the ARF Photo Archives: What is an Archive, Anyway?

For the past few months, I have had the great privilege of working through the collection of over 3,500 photographs in the archives of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF).

The photographs have been meticulously scanned and thoroughly cataloged already by some colleagues. My job has been to go through the list, fix or fine-tune whatever needs an extra pair of eyes – at times involving some engaging and surprising supplementary research – and upload the images onto the photographs section of the website. Some finishing touches have often been further supplied by more colleagues still. It is a real team effort.

Now that we are past the 1,500 mark of uploaded photographs, I have put together a few brief articles for the pages of the Weekly highlighting some themes and takeaways from the collection. This venerable newspaper has shared insights from the ARF Archives on more than one occasion in recent years. Beyond anything else, I would like to invite readers to have a look at the images for themselves at arfarchives.org/photograph. Maybe you will find a great illustration for a report, a fun tidbit to share with family and friends, or a familiar face or two – relatives or ancestors, perhaps?

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Azerbaijan’s use of force in Nagorno-Karabakh risks undermining key international norms, signaling to dictators that might makes right

Azerbaijan’s use of force in Nagorno-Karabakh risks undermining key international norms, signaling to dictators that might makes right

The United States’ top humanitarian aid representative, Samantha Power, was dispatched on a fact-finding mission on Sept. 26, 2023, to a registration point on the border with Armenia for those fleeing the Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. What she found was frustration: “Sanction Azerbaijan or go back to your country! We don’t care. Stop the lies!” someone shouted in a mid-press conference interruption.

Underscoring the gravity of the situation, Power’s visit coincided with a fuel depot explosion across the border in the disputed territory that killed at least 68 people, with 105 reported missing.

As an Armenian scholar of international affairs, I see the anger directed at Power reflecting two realities: the worsening plight of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and the perceived inaction of the international community. Should the authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan be allowed to act with impunity in Nagorno-Karabakh, then I fear it will only further erode the international principle of nonuse of force.

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Renewed Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh: An Endgame or More Instability to Come?

Renewed Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh: An Endgame or More Instability to Come?

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani armed forces began large-scale shelling of targets in Nagorno-Karabakh, causing death, injury, and damage to property. The active hostilities did not come as a surprise. In preceding weeks, there were numerous reports of the build-up of Azerbaijani troops on the line of contact with Nagorno-Karabakh as well as with Armenia. The appearance of a new symbol on military hardware – an upside-down letter A – added to the speculations that plans were underway for a new round of attacks.

The massive bloodshed of the Second Karabakh War may have come to an end after forty-four days with the trilateral agreement brokered by Moscow and signed by the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia on the night of November 9-10, 2020. However, acts of violence against what remains of Nagorno-Karabakh patrolled by Russian peacekeepers and against Armenia proper have been a regular phenomenon ever since the spring of 2021. There is a rather lengthy Wikipedia entry laying out major and minor incursions and attacks which have cost lives and have damaged infrastructure. Other practices, such as kidnappings, cattle rustling, and the blocking of highways by Azerbaijani forces have added to tensions. The most far-reaching such incidents were the fighting on November 16, 2021 and September 12-14, 2022, both on the effectively new borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Nagorno-Karabakh, beyond other documented violations, the ongoing partial or whole blockade remains the issue of greatest concern, to the extent that its possible consequences have been characterized as “genocidal” by the founding chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno Ocampo.

The government of Azerbaijan offers its own perspectives on the developments mentioned above. Inconsistent readings of the November 9-10, 2020 statement between Baku and Yerevan lie at the heart of the matter. In addition, selective understandings and applications of public international law by Baku exacerbate the circumstances. Finally, the role of the international community – in particular, cross-negotiations, or perhaps short-circuited negotiations, led in parallel by the Kremlin and the West – have largely proven ineffective.

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The Eagle in the South Caucasus: Armenia Tests Alternative Geopolitical Waters

The Eagle in the South Caucasus: Armenia Tests Alternative Geopolitical Waters

Walter Landgraf, Nareg Seferian

  • The US-Armenia “Eagle Partner” joint military exercise from September 11–20 may signal the beginning of a shift in the foreign policy direction of Armenia, historically a close ally to Russia.
  • Armenia has been growing frustrated at the lackluster response of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to its appeals for assistance in the deepening conflict with Azerbaijan.
  • However, it would be difficult to imagine a wholesale change in the geopolitical orientation in Yerevan, given the strong military, economic, energy, and cultural ties between Armenia and Russia.

On September 11, US and Armenian troops kicked off the “Eagle Partner” joint military exercise at the Zar and Armavir training sites near Yerevan. The exercise is set to run for ten days and is relatively low-key, involving only 175 Armenian troops and eighty-five US soldiers—that is about the size of a very small US Army company. According to the US Army Europe and Africa, the command responsible for overseeing Army operations there, the soldiers are from the 1st Brigade, 101st Airborne Division and the Kansas Army National Guard. The latter has had a bilateral partnership with Armenia under the National Guard Bureau’s State Partnership Program since 2003. The stated goal of the exercise is to enhance US-Armenian interoperability and prepare Armenian troops for possible future peacekeeping operations.

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Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict – Overview, Analysis, Resources

Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict – Overview, Analysis, Resources

Hello. My name is Nareg Seferian. I recently completed my doctoral studies at the School of Public and International Affairs at Virginia Tech.

Part of my dissertation had to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

I wanted to make this video for a few reasons, mainly to present an overview of the dispute – a backgrounder or explainer.

Right at the outset I have to emphasise that, as with many conflicts around the world, the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh is complex. It has numerous dimensions. There are many sensitive layers to it which I will not address in this video.

I intend to provide some general information, offer a little bit of analysis, and suggest some resources for those interested in learning more.

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Genocide resisters, long overlooked by history, step into the spotlight

Genocide resisters, long overlooked by history, step into the spotlight

The anniversary of the Armenian Genocide is marked every year on April 24. That was the date in 1915 when hundreds of Armenian community leaders were arrested by the government of the Ottoman Empire in the capital Constantinople, now known as Istanbul.

At the time, Armenians lived throughout what is modern-day Turkey. Modern scholars estimate up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed by the Turkish government, and around 800,000 to 1.2 million were deported during World War I. Most ended up in the Middle East, the Caucasus, Russia, Europe and the Americas. During that period, Greek, Assyrian and Yezidi communities were also massacred and forced to flee into exile.

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