Month: September 2023

by

Azerbaijan’s use of force in Nagorno-Karabakh risks undermining key international norms, signaling to dictators that might makes right

Azerbaijan’s use of force in Nagorno-Karabakh risks undermining key international norms, signaling to dictators that might makes right

The United States’ top humanitarian aid representative, Samantha Power, was dispatched on a fact-finding mission on Sept. 26, 2023, to a registration point on the border with Armenia for those fleeing the Armenian-populated enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. What she found was frustration: “Sanction Azerbaijan or go back to your country! We don’t care. Stop the lies!” someone shouted in a mid-press conference interruption.

Underscoring the gravity of the situation, Power’s visit coincided with a fuel depot explosion across the border in the disputed territory that killed at least 68 people, with 105 reported missing.

As an Armenian scholar of international affairs, I see the anger directed at Power reflecting two realities: the worsening plight of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh and the perceived inaction of the international community. Should the authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan be allowed to act with impunity in Nagorno-Karabakh, then I fear it will only further erode the international principle of nonuse of force.

read the rest

by

Renewed Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh: An Endgame or More Instability to Come?

Renewed Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh: An Endgame or More Instability to Come?

On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijani armed forces began large-scale shelling of targets in Nagorno-Karabakh, causing death, injury, and damage to property. The active hostilities did not come as a surprise. In preceding weeks, there were numerous reports of the build-up of Azerbaijani troops on the line of contact with Nagorno-Karabakh as well as with Armenia. The appearance of a new symbol on military hardware – an upside-down letter A – added to the speculations that plans were underway for a new round of attacks.

The massive bloodshed of the Second Karabakh War may have come to an end after forty-four days with the trilateral agreement brokered by Moscow and signed by the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia on the night of November 9-10, 2020. However, acts of violence against what remains of Nagorno-Karabakh patrolled by Russian peacekeepers and against Armenia proper have been a regular phenomenon ever since the spring of 2021. There is a rather lengthy Wikipedia entry laying out major and minor incursions and attacks which have cost lives and have damaged infrastructure. Other practices, such as kidnappings, cattle rustling, and the blocking of highways by Azerbaijani forces have added to tensions. The most far-reaching such incidents were the fighting on November 16, 2021 and September 12-14, 2022, both on the effectively new borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In Nagorno-Karabakh, beyond other documented violations, the ongoing partial or whole blockade remains the issue of greatest concern, to the extent that its possible consequences have been characterized as “genocidal” by the founding chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Luis Moreno Ocampo.

The government of Azerbaijan offers its own perspectives on the developments mentioned above. Inconsistent readings of the November 9-10, 2020 statement between Baku and Yerevan lie at the heart of the matter. In addition, selective understandings and applications of public international law by Baku exacerbate the circumstances. Finally, the role of the international community – in particular, cross-negotiations, or perhaps short-circuited negotiations, led in parallel by the Kremlin and the West – have largely proven ineffective.

read the rest

by

The Eagle in the South Caucasus: Armenia Tests Alternative Geopolitical Waters

The Eagle in the South Caucasus: Armenia Tests Alternative Geopolitical Waters

Walter Landgraf, Nareg Seferian

  • The US-Armenia “Eagle Partner” joint military exercise from September 11–20 may signal the beginning of a shift in the foreign policy direction of Armenia, historically a close ally to Russia.
  • Armenia has been growing frustrated at the lackluster response of the Collective Security Treaty Organization to its appeals for assistance in the deepening conflict with Azerbaijan.
  • However, it would be difficult to imagine a wholesale change in the geopolitical orientation in Yerevan, given the strong military, economic, energy, and cultural ties between Armenia and Russia.

On September 11, US and Armenian troops kicked off the “Eagle Partner” joint military exercise at the Zar and Armavir training sites near Yerevan. The exercise is set to run for ten days and is relatively low-key, involving only 175 Armenian troops and eighty-five US soldiers—that is about the size of a very small US Army company. According to the US Army Europe and Africa, the command responsible for overseeing Army operations there, the soldiers are from the 1st Brigade, 101st Airborne Division and the Kansas Army National Guard. The latter has had a bilateral partnership with Armenia under the National Guard Bureau’s State Partnership Program since 2003. The stated goal of the exercise is to enhance US-Armenian interoperability and prepare Armenian troops for possible future peacekeeping operations.

read the rest