Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict – Overview, Analysis, Resources

Hello. My name is Nareg Seferian. I recently completed my doctoral studies at the School of Public and International Affairs at Virginia Tech.

Part of my dissertation had to do with the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

I wanted to make this video for a few reasons, mainly to present an overview of the dispute – a backgrounder or explainer.

Right at the outset I have to emphasise that, as with many conflicts around the world, the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh is complex. It has numerous dimensions. There are many sensitive layers to it which I will not address in this video.

I intend to provide some general information, offer a little bit of analysis, and suggest some resources for those interested in learning more.

So please allow me to draw your attention to this part of the world.

It could be considered east of Europe or western Asia perhaps. Some might label it part of the Greater Middle East.

It is more often called the Caucasus.

Events around here do not often receive coverage in the global media.

One of the reasons for that, I would argue, is that, for much of the past few hundred years, the Caucasus has been on the periphery – on the edge – of most of the world’s empires.

It has the attention of many governments and interests, yes. But rarely has it had broad political, economic, religious, or cultural influence.

Zooming in, the Caucasus is more properly the name of a mountain range between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea.

The South Caucasus region appears on the world map today with three independent countries, three member-states of the United Nations: Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

These three countries used to be a part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

The USSR was a country with different kinds of territorial or administrative divisions.

At the top were the union republics – fifteen of them, which became independent countries in 1991.

There were also sub-units – autonomous republics and regions and other divisions.

The Soviet Union was meant to be an international, cosmopolitan country. Communism as the ideology tried to overcome ethnic or national differentiations. One of the ways it did so was to allow for the free expression and development of ethno-national cultures, as long as those expressions did not challenge the communist regime. So, for example, religious cultural expressions were suppressed. But language, music, or other components of ethno-national culture were allowed to flourish within the ideological demands of the Kremlin.

There was also a political dimension allowed to ethno-national identity. The union republics and many of the sub-units were organised along the lines of nationalities.

This is where things become complicated in the Caucasus.

The USSR was established in the 1920s after a period of war, civil war, and various local conflicts.

There are numerous ethno-national identities in this part of the world living side by side. Having very neat administrative divisions on the map is not possible.

I couldn’t go into many historical details. I would recommend the book From Conflict to Autonomy in the Caucasus by Arsène Saparov discussing the establishment of the autonomous territories of the South Caucasus.

The Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region was one such territory.

It had a majority Armenian population, but fell within the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic.

At various points in the Soviet years, Armenian community leaders or activists tried to have Nagorno-Karabakh transferred to Soviet Armenia.

But it was only towards the end of the Soviet era, as the communist regime was becoming more liberal, that the Karabakh Movement, beginning in 1988, received popular support in Armenia and in Nagorno-Karabakh.

It also received strong resistance in Azerbaijan.

The result was war.

I will not go into a discussion of that period. Suffice it to say that hundreds of thousands of Armenians and Azerbaijanis faced violence, massacres, and deportation.

By the time of the cease-fire in 1994, the situation on the ground was as depicted.

The Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh Republic or NKR was proclaimed. It had effective control over almost all of the autonomous region. It also had control over surrounding areas, which were formerly inhabited mostly by Azerbaijanis.

Negotiations to settle the dispute came under the purview of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, or the OSCE.

Russia, France, and the United States were the co-chairs, the mediators during negotiations.

After 1994 there were a number of meetings, some proposals, but no tangible progress.

The situation on the ground remained tense for two decades and more. Low-scale, momentary shoot-outs or skirmishes were regular occurrences, especially after 2014.

A major escalation took place over four days in April, 2016.

In July, 2020, a separate brief round of fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces took place farther north, not in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Then, between September 27 and November 10, 2020, the Second Karabakh War took place. Also known as the 44-Day War. With the support of Turkey, mercenaries from Syria, Israeli weaponry, and, especially, drone warfare, Azerbaijani forces advanced into much of what the unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic controlled.

After the cease-fire brokered by Moscow, these areas – in orange – remained Armenian-populated, now patrolled by Russian peacekeepers.

There is one road connecting with Armenia, known as the Berdzor or Lachin Corridor – in purple on the map. The cease-fire arranged for Russian control over that road, allowing for the movement of people and goods between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Since December 12, 2022, that road has effectively come under a blockade by Azerbaijani forces.

Some partial movements under the auspices of the Russian peacekeepers or the International Committee of the Red Cross have taken place. But, for the most part, Nagorno-Karabakh has been physically cut off from the rest of the world for well over half a year now.

One of the reasons I am making this video now – recording on August 13, 2023 – is to highlight the catastrophe being faced by some 120,000 people. Now, that is a liberal estimate of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh. It could be fewer. But even if it’s just one person being blockaded, it would still be a human tragedy, imposed as a result of a conscious decision made by the leadership of Azerbaijan.

The former prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno Ocampo, published his assessment of the situation last week, on August 7, 2023. He concluded that the policies being pursued by the Azerbaijani government could be considered genocidal.

Now, I am myself Armenian, so that is one reason why this issue moves me.

I am also a researcher. So I look to other perspectives as well.

There are a few levels of analysis worth considering here.

One is bigger-picture geopolitics. The Caucasus is a theatre for rivalries among various global powers. The Russian presence in the region has been predominant for the past two hundred years and more. Other actors are currently vying for influence and access.

An indicator of those rivalries is the parallel negotiation tracks which have developed with Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders. They have met in Brussels, in Washington, in Moscow. The war in Ukraine since early 2022 has added its own complications to the dynamics.

At the more regional level of analysis, the rivalries between Turkey and Iran play a role, and a broader context of their very different relationships with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

There are particular interests regarding infrastructure – transportation and trade routes, oil and gas pipelines.

This is where the global meets the regional. The development and control of infrastructure connecting Europe, Russia, Central Asia, the Middle East, India, and China is an important factor in this conflict.

One of the key demands made by the Azerbaijani government is sovereign access to its exclave of Nakhichevan, from which it is separated by Armenian territory. Open borders in fact, especially for that exclave, is one of the provisions of the 2020 cease-fire agreement.

Another detail to mention here is the existence of additional, smaller enclaves or exclaves. By the time of the end of the Soviet Union in 1991, there were three Azerbaijani territories within Armenia and one Armenian territory within Azerbaijan according to the administrative divisions of the USSR. During the 1990s each space was taken over by the surrounding country. This is yet another component of the dispute to be resolved.

At the very local level of analysis, the experience has been fraught, especially for rural populations in southern and eastern bordering regions of Armenia. I conducted fieldwork for my dissertation in some of those areas.

Since May, 2021, Azerbaijani forces have on numerous occasions carried out incursions and attacks into Armenia.

They still hold control over parts of the territory of Armenia, although the Azerbaijani government disputes the recognition of the borders, arguing that they were never properly established in Soviet times.

The recent negotiations have focussed on this point – that is, Armenia and Azerbaijan have to agree on their borders.

Following the cease-fire of 1994, there was what many called an enduring “no war, no peace”. Day-to-day life went on. The situation was by and large stable. But the conflict was not resolved.

Following the cease-fire of 2020, the war has not ended for all practical purposes.

The most important factor in setting the stage for the conflict and prolonging it, I would argue, is what scholars call the geographical imaginations or territorial visions prevailing in nationalist discourse in Armenia and in Azerbaijan.

That is to say, there are certain narratives of history and perceptions of geography which are widespread among the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders and populations.

An ancient Armenian homeland, based on some readings or snapshots of history, offer legitimations to claim territory.

For example, Nagorno-Karabakh is more often called Artsakh in Armenian, taking on a name for the region dating back a couple of thousand years.

A broader homeland is likewise envisioned in Azerbaijani nationalist thought, based on, again, certain readings of history, past demographics, or other framings which offer legitimations for claims.

The expectation of nationalism is a state – a country – in which one ethno-national identity, one culture is predominant or exclusive.

These territorial visions are mutually exclusive.

Thinking about territory in these kinds of terms and only in such terms has been a great obstacle in conflicts around the world, including elsewhere in the Caucasus, or in the Balkans, in the Middle East, in many places.

There are numerous books, articles, documentaries, and other works on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. I would like to suggest a few resources.

Thomas de Waal’s Black Garden or The Caucasus: An Introduction offer basic starts.

Anatomy of a Rivalry by Laurence Broers is perhaps the richest study of this issue. It was published before the Second Karabakh War, so it does not cover the latest events. But it offers a comprehensive understanding of the conflict.

Krista Goff’s Nested Nationalism is for its part an excellent study of the development of Azerbaijani identity, while The Armenians: From Kings and Priests to Merchants and Commissars by Razmik Panossian is a great source on the development of modern Armenian nationalist thought.

This is an ongoing issue, as mentioned, and the urgency of the blockade is only the latest episode. I would highly recommend following the work of the International Crisis Group, as well as the coverage of the region by RFE/RL, Eurasianet, and OC Media for good English-language reporting.

The Twitter feed of the Nagorno Karabakh Observer is likewise an excellent resource.

There are many other sources and resources, of course. The ones I mention are just a good sample. Links to all of them are in the description below.

Special thanks to the cartographers who created the maps used in this video, and Google Maps and Wikimedia Commons. The images are generously in the public domain or have Creative Commons licenses or are otherwise publicly available.

I wanted to make this video primarily as an overview.

I am also personally moved by the violence and the suffering of the Armenian and also the Azerbaijani people.

Finally, I have received immense support during my doctoral studies, in part from public funding. Virginia Tech is a land-grant public university – it is meant to produce knowledge for the use of society broadly speaking. I owe it to my education to share what I have learnt. This is the spirit of scholarship as a whole.

So I hope you have found this video informative and useful. Thanks for watching.

*Suggested Resources*

Arsène Saparov – From Conflict to Autonomy in the Caucasus: The Soviet Union and the Making of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh (Routledge, 2015) https://www.routledge.com/From-Conflict-to-Autonomy-in-the-Caucasus-The-Soviet-Union-and-the-Making/Saparov/p/book/9781138476158

Thomas de Waal – Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War (NYU Press, 2013) (Second Edition) https://nyupress.org/9780814760321/black-garden/

Thomas de Waal – The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2015) (Second Edition) https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-caucasus-9780190683092

Laurence Broers – Armenia and Azerbaijan: Anatomy of a Rivalry (Edinburgh University Press, 2019) https://edinburghuniversitypress.com/book-armenia-and-azerbaijan.html

Krista A. Goff – Nested Nationalism: Making and Unmaking Nations in the Soviet Caucasus (Cornell University Press, 2021) https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501753275/nested-nationalism/

Razmik Panossian – The Armenians: From Kings and Priests to Merchants and Commissars (Columbia University Press, 2006) http://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-armenians/9780231139267

International Crisis Group

RFE/RL

Eurasianet

OC Media

Nagorno Karabakh Observer

twitter.com/NKobserver

*Links to Images*

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_USSR_with_SSR_names.svg